Benford Analysis of Thurston County General Election Vote

Following is an analysis of Thurston County's reported vote by precinct in the November 4, 2008 general election, comparing first-digit frequency with that predicted by Benford's Law.

My guess is the general trend toward higher incidence of lower digits can be explained by the fact that precinct vote totals are, in a way, "chosen to fit a specific range" as Fallows notes in his article - though I'm not sure of the exact limits on precinct sizes, I know they exist, and in glancing at the files from the Sec. of State, I did not notice any precincts giving more than 700 votes to any candidate, which is certainly going to depress the 7's, 8's and 9's

Methodology: the tables and charts below were generated by running downloaded files for Thurston County election results from the Sec. of State's office through a QBASIC program I wrote to total the occurrence of first digits, compute percentages, and generate HTML tables and links to Google Charts.

President

#CountData %Benford %
1 498 35.5% 30.1%
2 336 24% 17.6%
3 223 15.9% 12.5%
4 120 8.6% 9.7%
5 73 5.2% 7.9%
6 45 3.2% 6.7%
7 41 2.9% 5.8%
8 37 2.6% 5.1%
9 28 2% 4.6%
Total = 1401

Congress District 3

#CountData %Benford %
1 101 29.2% 30.1%
2 71 20.5% 17.6%
3 56 16.2% 12.5%
4 44 12.7% 9.7%
5 16 4.6% 7.9%
6 18 5.2% 6.7%
7 14 4% 5.8%
8 14 4% 5.1%
9 12 3.5% 4.6%
Total = 346

Congress District 9

#CountData %Benford %
1 81 35.5% 30.1%
2 70 30.7% 17.6%
3 30 13.2% 12.5%
4 14 6.1% 9.7%
5 7 3.1% 7.9%
6 5 2.2% 6.7%
7 2 .9% 5.8%
8 15 6.6% 5.1%
9 4 1.8% 4.6%
Total = 228

Governor

#CountData %Benford %
1 185 32% 30.1%
2 183 31.7% 17.6%
3 99 17.1% 12.5%
4 44 7.6% 9.7%
5 18 3.1% 7.9%
6 9 1.6% 6.7%
7 11 1.9% 5.8%
8 17 2.9% 5.1%
9 12 2.1% 4.6%
Total = 578

Lt. Governor

#CountData %Benford %
1 185 32.2% 30.1%
2 140 24.4% 17.6%
3 88 15.3% 12.5%
4 58 10.1% 9.7%
5 21 3.7% 7.9%
6 19 3.3% 6.7%
7 18 3.1% 5.8%
8 25 4.4% 5.1%
9 20 3.5% 4.6%
Total = 574

Sec. of State

#CountData %Benford %
1 231 39.8% 30.1%
2 143 24.7% 17.6%
3 83 14.3% 12.5%
4 36 6.2% 9.7%
5 24 4.1% 7.9%
6 13 2.2% 6.7%
7 11 1.9% 5.8%
8 20 3.4% 5.1%
9 19 3.3% 4.6%
Total = 580

State Treasurer

#CountData %Benford %
1 230 39.9% 30.1%
2 184 31.9% 17.6%
3 85 14.8% 12.5%
4 28 4.9% 9.7%
5 11 1.9% 7.9%
6 8 1.4% 6.7%
7 5 .9% 5.8%
8 16 2.8% 5.1%
9 9 1.6% 4.6%
Total = 576

State Auditor

#CountData %Benford %
1 177 30.8% 30.1%
2 142 24.7% 17.6%
3 87 15.2% 12.5%
4 57 9.9% 9.7%
5 25 4.4% 7.9%
6 17 3% 6.7%
7 23 4% 5.8%
8 23 4% 5.1%
9 23 4% 4.6%
Total = 574

Attorney General

#CountData %Benford %
1 224 38.9% 30.1%
2 160 27.8% 17.6%
3 82 14.2% 12.5%
4 36 6.3% 9.7%
5 24 4.2% 7.9%
6 11 1.9% 6.7%
7 6 1% 5.8%
8 17 3% 5.1%
9 16 2.8% 4.6%
Total = 576

Commisioner of Public Lands

#CountData %Benford %
1 224 38.6% 30.1%
2 202 34.8% 17.6%
3 72 12.4% 12.5%
4 33 5.7% 9.7%
5 13 2.2% 7.9%
6 10 1.7% 6.7%
7 9 1.6% 5.8%
8 6 1% 5.1%
9 11 1.9% 4.6%
Total = 580

Supt. of Public Instruction

#CountData %Benford %
1 252 43.6% 30.1%
2 197 34.1% 17.6%
3 58 10% 12.5%
4 21 3.6% 9.7%
5 6 1% 7.9%
6 20 3.5% 6.7%
7 3 .5% 5.8%
8 9 1.6% 5.1%
9 12 2.1% 4.6%
Total = 578

Insurance Commissioner

#CountData %Benford %
1 186 32.3% 30.1%
2 143 24.8% 17.6%
3 82 14.2% 12.5%
4 59 10.2% 9.7%
5 25 4.3% 7.9%
6 15 2.6% 6.7%
7 26 4.5% 5.8%
8 17 3% 5.1%
9 23 4% 4.6%
Total = 576